Here’s where our experts are leaning heading into Super Bowl LV
By Tyler Sullivan CBS Sports
The moment has finally come: Super Bowl LV is here. It’ll be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing a rare home game as they take on the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs with the winner hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. For the Buccaneers, they find themselves back at Raymond James Stadium after winning three road playoff games in a row, including a victory in the NFC title game against MVP winner Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. As for the Chiefs, they took down arguably the hottest team in football in the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game and are now looking to become the first team since the 2003-04 Patriots to win back-to-back titles.
Here, we’re going to dive into all the different betting angles that this game has to offer and tell you our experts’ take from a gambling scope. We’ll also get an assist from our friends over at SportsLine, who have put together a fantastic and in-depth guide to all the Super Bowl LV player props. We will highlight a few below.
Are you ready for Super Bowl LV? More importantly, are you ready to make some money? Let’s get after it.
Chiefs at Buccaneers spread picks
Latest Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
“For most of this season, this Kansas City team didn’t look as dominant as it did last year. But the Chiefs amped it up big time against the Bills. When Patrick Mahomes is cooking, they are almost impossible to stop. We know the Bucs and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles love to blitz, but that’s suicide against Mahomes, who is the best in the league against the blitz. Injuries to both starting tackles for the Chiefs could mean less blitzing is needed, but I still think the Bucs will be true to who they are, which is an attack defense. That could and should mean a lot of big plays. — Pete Prisco on how Kansas City edges out a 35-30 win over the Bucs.
“The only thing more impressive than Andy Reid off the bye is Patrick Mahomes off the bye. In his career as a starter, not only is Mahomes 7-0 coming off a bye, but the Chiefs have averaged 35.7 points per game in those seven wins. In Mahomes’ career, the Chiefs have also averaged 33.3 points per game when playing a team for the second time during a season. I think what I’m trying to say here is that the Chiefs are going to score a lot of points and I’m not sure the Buccaneers are going to be able to keep up. The Chiefs have a chance to become the NFL‘s first repeat champion in 16 years and I think they’re going to pull it off. ” — John Breech, who is 16-2 picking Chiefs games this year — on why he likes them by a touchdown against Tampa Bay.
In his bold predictions piece for Super Bowl LV, CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin has Tom Brady and Mahomes combining for 800 (!) yards and six touchdown passes. To read the rest of Cody’s bold predictions (plus a prediction for this game), click here.
“While the rare home-field advantage should help the Bucs, they also have a few intriguing trends leaning their way. Teams entering the Super Bowl with a worse record than their opponent have won 10 of the past 12 games. Tampa Bay went 11-5 over the regular season while K.C. claimed the No. 1 seed in the AFC at 14-2. The Chiefs had a tremendously successful season in terms of their actual record, but they went 8-10 ATS, which is currently tied for the second-worst cover percentage entering the Super Bowl. Teams who have previously entered the Super Bowl multiple games below .500 ATS lost (1997 Packers, 1979 Rams). ” — Tyler Sullivan explains why he likes the Buccaneers to edge out a 33-27 victory.
SportsLine’s legendary handicapper Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg enters Super Bowl LV on a 51-34 record on his NFL best bets over the past year-and-a-half. For this matchup, he has three best bets that he is coveting, including the “huge factor” why the Chiefs will not win this game.
Chiefs at Buccaneers total picks
“The over/under has dropped a full point from the 57 points it opened at. Both of these offenses have the potential to put up points in a hurry, but I’m not so sure that will happen come Sunday. Interestingly enough, the total was also 56 points the first time these teams met, yet they combined for just 51 points. Six of the past seven Super Bowls with a total of 50-plus points have stayed under dating to 2001, and with bad weather in the forecast, it’s hard for me not to lean toward the under.” — Jordan Dajani on why he’s leaning toward the Under for this matchup.
Best prop picks
- Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: Under 327.5 (-115). Mahomes has topped 330 yards in just seven of his 17 games this season and has gone under that total in four straight, including both postseason games. He hasn’t thrown for more than 325 yards in any of his seven career postseason games.
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown: Yes (-162). Kelce scores a touchdown in 70% of our simulations, and with a price of -162 needing a player to have a 62% chance of scoring a touchdown, the Yes is a quality value play.
- Chris Godwin total receiving yards: Under 71.5 (-110). Our projections have a slight lean on the Under in this prop with a projected total of 66 yards. Antonio Brown’s absence in the NFC Championship Game allowed Godwin to top 100 yards for just the second time all season.
- Tom Brady total passing yards: Under 296.5 (-115). Brady is expected to struggle some against a Chiefs pass rush that looked great in the AFC Championship Game win over the Bills. He threw for well over 300 yards in four straight games heading into the divisional-round matchup against the Saints but hasn’t reached that mark in either of his past two.